Betting Strategy

Most football match prediction use a points rating scheme. The number of points which a team is awarded is dependent upon the outcome of previous matches involving that team. More points are awarded for previous match victories than for draws or losses. For example win 4 points, draw 1 and lose 0 points. Sometimes points are awarded on the basis of other match statistics, most usually goals scored and conceded, but also shots on goal or any other data . A higher team points rating means a greater team winning chance.

By comparing the winning potential of opposing teams we can calculate a model for possible outcome of the match. Rather than making a specific prediction, however, the outcome of a match is expressed in the form of a probability distribution. Consider, for example, a match between Levski Sofia. (home) and CSKA (away). Using the described methodology, we might calculate the following probability distribution for the three possible match outcomes:
Levski Sofia. vs. CSKA: Home 55% Draw 25% Away 20%

On its own, this probability distribution does not tell us very much other than the most likely outcome of this match is a Home Win for Levski Sofia.
However, given that the average probability distribution of league match outcomes is 46% home win, 27% draw, 27% away win (for Bulgarian league), it is clear that betting on a Home team victory is the most likely outcome. To utilise this match information in a meaningful way, we need to have a look at what betting odds are being offered by the bookmaker.